After grassroots investigation and market research, CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in November 2022 will be about 25,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 25%.

In terms of different markets, the domestic market is estimated to sell 15,500 units, an increase of about 11% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the domestic market has returned to positive; the export market is estimated to sell 10,000 units, an increase of about 25% year-on-year.

As a typical investment-dependent and cyclical industry, China's excavation machinery industry is facing many uncertainties such as cyclical market adjustments, the impact of the epidemic, intensified competition, rising prices of raw materials and bulk commodities, escalating emissions, and complex international trade relations.

The deadline is approaching, the final sales period of the National Three Machines

From December 1, 2022, all non-road mobile machinery produced, imported and sold below 560kW (including 560kW) and the diesel engines installed therein shall comply with the "National IV" emission standards.

November is the last month for the sales of China National Sanji. The inventory level of OEMs will have a greater impact on market sales this month.

It may be too early to say the inflection point

In July 2022, China's excavator sales growth rate turned positive for the first time; in November 2022, the domestic market sales growth rate also turned positive, but this does not mean that the Chinese excavator market turning point has appeared.

The switch of emission standards in the short term will directly affect the market sales in the past two months.

We must face up to many hidden worries in the current industry: manufacturers' revenue and net profit have fallen sharply, various forms of price competition have intensified, and channel blood loss is obvious; end users are facing challenges such as fierce competition and difficulty in paying back. Do not take the market share as the first indicator to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of China's excavation machinery industry.

There will be some deviations in market forecasts in the short term due to the inventory level and the overdraft of demand for new National IV machines.

Transferred from Industry Development Research Network