Excavator sales figures for 2021 are out. Despite consecutive months of year-on-year declines, the 340,000 total sales were still a slight increase from the previous year. Among them, the volume of exports doubled year-on-year.

Based on the annual data, a total of 342,800 excavators were sold from January to December 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 15,200 units, or 4.63%. Among them, 274,400 units were sold in China, down 6.32% year-on-year; Exports were 68,400 units, up 97 percent year-on-year.

According to the statistics of China Economic Research Institute in 2020, Chinese excavators have been exported to 188 countries or regions, mainly including Belgium, the United States, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and so on.

It is the fourth year in a row that excavator sales have hit a record.

The sales volume of excavators was 203,000 units in 2018 and 235,700 units in 2019, increasing to 327,600 units in 2020.

The sales volume of excavators in 2021 reached a peak in March, with 79,000 excavators of all kinds sold by excavator manufacturers according to the association, up 60% year on year. About 46,600 units were sold in April, up 2.52 percent year on year, a sharp decline in growth; Back-to-back year-on-year declines began in May.

Construction machinery is one of the important industries in China's machinery industry, whose product market demand is greatly affected by national infrastructure construction. Downstream customers are mainly concentrated in infrastructure, real estate and other investment-intensive industries, which are closely related to the macroeconomic cycle.

Excavators are widely used in water conservancy, power, road and other infrastructure construction, as well as real estate development, mining and other fields. The sales volume of excavators is regarded as a weathervane of the construction machinery industry and an economic barometer.

Last year, the excavator market as a whole was affected by the downward cycle of the industry, and the sales volume was poor.

CDB Securities pointed out that since 2021, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has been lower than market expectations, and the new housing construction area has declined year-on-year, which has had a large negative impact on the domestic demand for construction machinery. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will pick up in 2022, which will help boost the demand for construction machinery. In the short term, the construction machinery industry is affected by weakening domestic demand and rising costs, and profitability has declined.

China Development Securities analysis said that in 2022, China's economy still has some downward pressure, the task of supporting the bottom of the economy may fall on investment again, considering the current "14th Five-Year Plan" some major projects are gradually implemented, 2022 special bond issuance in advance and speed up, infrastructure investment will gradually increase.

According to the judgment of CDB Securities macro group, infrastructure investment is expected to increase by about 6% in 2022. The recovery of infrastructure investment growth is conducive to boosting the domestic demand for construction machinery. With the continuous improvement of domestic brands' market competitiveness and the increasingly perfect distribution of overseas channels, the export market is expected to continue high growth.

Cicc expects China's construction machinery industry to experience a slight year-on-year decline in sales volume in 2022, mainly reflecting the impact of declining real estate fixed-asset investment.

In the medium term, with the support of overseas market expansion and other factors, it is expected that the annual sales volume of excavator in China is expected to stabilize at about 300,000 units in the next three years, and there will not be a sharp decline. Among them, leading companies are still expected to achieve long-term growth through domestic share increase and overseas market expansion.