Zhejiang Securities: Export of construction machinery industry is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with excavator sales expected to bottom out in 2023
According to a research report released by Zhejiang Securities (601878), according to the statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on major excavator manufacturing enterprises, 18772 excavators of various types were sold in April 2023, of which 9513 were domestically produced; Export 9259 units. Domestic leading enterprises have significantly increased their overseas layout efforts in 2022, and there is still significant room for improvement compared to global leaders Caterpillar and Komatsu. Industry exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate throughout 2023, with a more prominent role in cycle smoothing. The future overseas market will be an important competitive market for Chinese enterprises and global leaders. Assuming a 5% decline in excavator sales in 2023, a slight decline in export growth, and a 30% increase in annual exports, it can hedge against a 30% decline in domestic sales. It is expected that excavator sales will bottom out in 2023. In April 2023, the sales of excavators decreased by 24% year-on-year; Among them, the domestic decline was 41%, while exports increased by 9%. In April 2023, the sales of excavators reached 18772 units, a year-on-year decrease of 24% and a decrease of 7.5 pct compared to March. Among them, 9513 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year decrease of 41% and a decrease of 7 units compared to March; Export 9259 units, a year-on-year increase of 9%, a decrease of 2 pct compared to March. From January to April 2023, the sales of excavators were 76243 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, including 38341 units in China, a year-on-year decrease of 44%; Export 37902 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The decline in domestic sales is mainly due to the weak repair of downstream demand, the slow recovery of operating rates, and the need to improve the market acceptance of the fourth model in China. Coupled with the slowdown in foreign growth, the overall sales of excavators are under pressure.